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132 search results for: predict

13

Do we make choices based on income or prices?

Last time we noted the following regarding thinking about NGDP level targeting: To understand what is going on we need to ask what expectations are being “set”, what is the “target” and how do these reflect what a central bank can “do”? Expectations: We know they can be adaptive (backward looking) or rational (forward looking), […]

14

Randomized control trials and economic models: friends or foes?

Randomized control trial (RTC) studies are getting more and more attention among policymakers in the last few decades. In addition, the RCT is one of the core experimental methodologies used by the recent nobel prize laureates in economics Duflo, Kremer and Banerjee.  Given the excitement around these methods, Chicago University has recently run the IGM […]

16

10 years after Lehman

I have been enjoying the live tweeting of the Lehman Brothers failure – with a 10 year delay. On the day I had this to say. Then 10 years ago today I tried to provide some predictions.  The terms of trade fell a little more than I expected (to their 2005 levels rather than to […]

17

Do old people hurt growth?

A new paper (PDF) claims that ageing populations will hinder growth by both dis-saving and dragging down innovation, thus reducing productivity. Using a VAR model, they relate the age structure to measures of growth, saving, investment, and other macroeconomic variables over the 1990-2007 period. They use those coefficients to predict the effect of demographic change […]

18

GDP in three different charts

Flipchart Rick has a post up about Andy Haldane’s speech the other day and, like all Haldane’s work, it’s witty and engaging so you should definitely read it. The subject is the recent slowdown in growth in the developed world and it illustrates how different views of the same data can lead to very different […]