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134 search results for: predict

14

Pandemic preferences – the case of housing

Cross-post from Substack. COVID was a pretty big life shock for all of us – with uncertainty about the virus, and the magnitude of government interventions associated with it, leading people to change their way of doing things across a number of dimensions of their life. One of the clearest changes was the decision of […]

15

Do we make choices based on income or prices?

Last time we noted the following regarding thinking about NGDP level targeting: To understand what is going on we need to ask what expectations are being “set”, what is the “target” and how do these reflect what a central bank can “do”? Expectations: We know they can be adaptive (backward looking) or rational (forward looking), […]

16

Randomized control trials and economic models: friends or foes?

Randomized control trial (RTC) studies are getting more and more attention among policymakers in the last few decades. In addition, the RCT is one of the core experimental methodologies used by the recent nobel prize laureates in economics Duflo, Kremer and Banerjee.  Given the excitement around these methods, Chicago University has recently run the IGM […]

18

10 years after Lehman

I have been enjoying the live tweeting of the Lehman Brothers failure – with a 10 year delay. On the day I had this to say. Then 10 years ago today I tried to provide some predictions.  The terms of trade fell a little more than I expected (to their 2005 levels rather than to […]