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Question: Have economists been over-confident regarding their ability to predict things?

My unequivocal answer here would be yes – but I’m not asking me, I’m asking you. Do you guys think that economists have been over-confident about their ability to predict things? We have repeatedly said on this blog that economic science “frames issues” – but predictions only stem from virtually untestable value judgments (although we […]


Unfortunate predictions?

David Farrar links to an article from 1 year ago – where economists were rather positive about the outlook for New Zealand. I was the same – I thought we would be out of a drought induced recession by September 2008. But things happened that we couldn’t foresee. Lehman brother’s collapse was the issue that […]


Recession in New Zealand: What does iPredict say?

In practical terms this seems like an absolute fact – New Zealand has had a recession over the first half of 2008. However, to satisfy the iPredict contract we need a technical recession. As we have suggested before, the main risk to this contract stems from the March quarter being revised up – as partial […]


iPredict and prediction markets

Just been looking at the blog of the iPredict internet venture (site here, blog here). It looks like interesting stuff, and is definitely a good way of illustrating the “wisdom of crowds”. One thing that did excite me was a “recession contract” (blog post here, contract details here). If it turns out that we have […]