Is economics vulgar?

The people at no right turn are unhappy with our discussion on torture as an alternative to imprisonment. That’s fine; however the last sentence of their post interested me:

“As for “moral biases”, economics would do well to remove the beam from its own eye, and recognise that it is in fact a rather vulgur monetarist implementation of utilitarianism and hence loaded with moral preconceptions (some quite questionable), rather than the morally-neutral, unbiased science they like to paint it as.” (emphasis added)

I am especially interested in the fact that Idiot/Savant said economics was “loaded with moral preconceptions”. The view of economics as money hungry right wing sociopaths is fairly common, and as a result there must be some reason why people think of economists in this way.

Before covering this, I want to say what I think economics is. Economics is the study of choice. Now there is a descriptive side to this (what is the situation) and a prescriptive side (what choice must be made). The descriptive side is positive, ‘fact’ based, while the prescriptive side is normative, so value laden. A good economist should separate out the descriptive and prescriptive parts of their argument. Ultimately, all economists should agree with the descriptive side of an economist’s statement, but they can disagree about the prescriptive side, as value judgements are different between people. Note: You cannot usually make a choice without value judgements, and even inside economics there is great debate about what constitutes an objective fact. The point is that a good economist will separate these factors out..

There are economists out there who bastardise this process, and will act as if their value judgements are objective facts. This is the case where we get “loaded moral preconceptions” from economists.

What I think irritates people is that people think economists apply values to things. However, if an economist gives something a certain monetary value, this is a value judgement, and can be attacked on that basis. An economist will first try to figure things out without resorting to value judgement, eg if an action makes everyone better off, then that action is objectively better than doing nothing. The ultimate goal at this stage is to model the situation without attaching value to any components.

Once this process is done the economist may want to make a prescriptive statement, this involves implementing some value judgements. While some people say it does make sense to attach values to things, we have to realise that when economists give a monetary value to something it is just as a means ordering the possible choices available (Note that this order is determined by some value judgement). You might say that a value cannot be attached to murder, but you simply have to look at an appropriate set of choices. Eg would you rather be murdered or have your fingers cut off.

James’s post was very good in this regard. He put down the appropriate considerations, and asked whether the way society views them is appropriate, he did not apply any value judgements. He was asking us to reveal our own value judgements to do with the punishment of criminals, to see what choice we would make.

Note:  I do want to have a free and frank discussion about economics applied to social issues, but can we please use a different issue than child abuse and rape.  We can cover the same emotive issues without delving into issues like this directly.

Fortnight in numbers

I’ve been lazy, here are some numbers:

  1. Work put in place slipped 0.5% in the June quarter.
  2. Non-residential consents rose 3.9%pa in the three months to July
  3. July residential consents slipped 1.3% from June (SA), on the back of a fall off in apartment consent numbers
  4. July credit card transactions were down 0.2% from June (SA)
  5. House prices rose 13.3%pa in August

Even economists struggle with inflation

I have to admit that when I read this news story last night I was very angry. BERL seems determined to tell everyone that increasing interest rates increases the money supply, and a higher money supply leads to higher inflation. This would make sense, if money supply wasn’t INFINITE. But it is.

In NZ we have an OCR target, the RBNZ will provide an unlimited supply of money for a given target rate. By doing this the Reserve Bank sets the interest rate, and the quantity of money is determined by money demand not money supply.

Now, the amount of foreign capital available does have an impact on us. If our interest rates rise then additional foreign funds become available for firms and banks to borrow. The foreign funds are available for a rate higher than the previous interest rate (as they required a higher return to become available) but this rate is lower than the domestic rate. If our interest rate is far above the world rate, then a significant amount of capital becomes available at this rate.

The important thing to note here is that this capital will only be spent if there is demand for it. As a result, the fact that foreign capital wants to enter the country will limit the degree with which an increase in the OCR will lift interest rates, it won’t magically make people want to borrow and spend more money.

The problem NZ has faced is that the RBNZ has not been able to drive interest rates up as much or as quickly as they would have liked (I’ve heard a time lag of 18 months mentioned in some circles!). However, the reason inflation has risen strongly is that money demand has increased significantly since from 2003, and the RBNZ was unable (and at times relatively unwilling) to significantly drive up interest rates.

The OCR is still the right tool to use, however if our interest rates are too far above the world interest rates, the marginal effect of an increase in the OCR is very small. In cases like this some type of alternate instrument might be of use. However saying that the OCR increases the money supply is at best ignorant of New Zealand monetary policy, and at worst a desperate plea for attention from a set of economists.

Australia leaves rates at 6.5%

The RBA left rates unchanged at 6.5%.  Although economic growth and inflation have been stronger than expected in Australia, global uncertainty would have prevented another increase.

The question now is, will the RBA lift rates again this year?  Ultimately, this will depend the degree of uncertainty surrounding global markets, and the strength of house prices over the next few months.

Does anyone that knows anything about Australia have any opinions on this, and general Australian monetary policy?

Run on funds drives LDC finance down

So the latest finance firm to collapse was actually in good shape, until good old investor panic lead to a run on funds took it out. The eight company since May 2006, I bet you a lot of people feel scared now.

The main thing to remember is that this company was small, $19m owed to investors is peanuts compared to the size of the ‘finance firm’ market of $16b. This story would not have made news if it wasn’t for the 7 other companies had gone done in recent memory.

Here we have a game of complementary actions. If you believe that other investors are now going to dump the firm, the expected payoff from you dumping the firm rises. If you think other investors are more willing to loan to the firm, the expected payoff from staying with the firm rises. In this case we can have a co-ordination problem. The equilibrium where everyone stays with the firm would have been dominant in the case of LDC, but as peoples beliefs were affected by recent uncertainty, we ended up in a degenerate, sub-optimal equilibrium where LDC folded.

In cases like this, the government can find ways to steady the nerves of investors and prevent things like this from happening, for example by cutting the cash rate. However, as always with economics, there is a trade-off. If the monetary authority cut rates to save the good firms, they would create a moral hazard problem for the market in the future. Finance companies would believe that the government would bail them out, and so would be willing to take on more risk than is socially optimal.

As a result, the best government action would be to tell investors to relax, but do nothing substantial. A correction in the financial market will take out a few genuinely good finance companies. However, this is the price we must face for clearing out all the dead wood in the market, and ensuring that our financial sector functions more cleanly in the future.

Update:  Another little finance firm has gone, this one is valued at $16m, Finance and Investments was its name.  Its times like these we need someone to come onto TV and tell everyone to calm down, someone like Keynes.  I miss Keynes.  Note:  This firm only went down as it was getting funding from LDC, as a result we can blame the damn run on funds for this as well.  Damn you fund runners 😉

Cost of carbon

No right turn has a good point about what the market price of carbon will be versus what the government is pricing it at.

As of May, the government is financing based on a carbon price of $13.21 per carbon ton (update CO2). This is ridiculous, when we see other New Zealand prices set between $33.75 and $70. In European market pricing carbon dioxide futures at over 20 euros.

Update: As carbon dioxide is only 27% carbon (thankyou wikipedia), in carbon terms the European futures price is approximately 74 euros per ton. However, I suspect that the govt. and market prices are for CO2 as well, implying that the price per carbon ton is $49 in Treasury estimates.

Whether you agree with the Kyoto protocol or not, we have to pay our Kyoto liability. What good is lying to ourselves about what the size of it will be. Hopefully government environmental policy uses the world price for carbon to make policy, instead of the Treasury price.