«

»

May
07
2009

Mar 09 Unemployment: 5%

This figure is far stronger than the market expected (5.3%) – and well stronger than I was thinking (I was personally seeing scope for 5.5% given how quickly the UR rose in 1990/91).

I know unemployment is a lagging variable – but just reaching the “neutral rate” after 15 months of recession is a strong sign for the NZ economy. I don’t know how we can even get to 7% unemployment in a situation like this (unless the recession is still going strong in 2011 ;) )

This is a very strong result – make no mistake.

Also careful trying to say that employment or the participation rate were rubbish – they are still both up on a year ago ;)

About the author

Matt Nolan

Matt Nolan is an economist at Infometrics (although the opinions expressed are independent of the organisation) . Email: nolan.matt@gmail.com; matt@infometrics.co.nz. Work phone: 04-496-5290

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2009/05/07/mar-09-unemployment-5/

2 pings

  1. Twitted by TVHE says:

    [...] This post was Twitted by TVHE – Real-url.org [...]

  2. TVHE » Australian unemployment also surprises … says:

    [...] unemployment in Australia fell from 5.7% in March to 5.4% in April.  Following our better than expected March quarter this is all very [...]

Comments have been disabled.

Bad Behavior has blocked 2788 access attempts in the last 7 days.


View My Stats"; //-->