NZ NDGP graphs – add your own comments!

As a starting point – thank you Statistics New Zealand for all your tasty data.

First a graph of the deviation of per capita NGDP from its 1994-2011 trend (took out the 1991-1993 period due to the structural changes taking place) – comparing the last ANZSIC 1996 data (Dec 2011) to the September ANZSIC 2006 data:


Then a graph of deviations in NGDP from trend and the UR (unemployment rate):


The same things will case NGDP to shift and the UR to shift, in opposite directions.  In that way this is unsuprising.  Make of it what you will in the NZ context, given your implicit model of the economy – in fact, feel free to mention it in the comments.  I will be sitting out of this one at present.

4 replies
    • Luc Hansen
      Luc Hansen says:

      Pretty stunning, too. I’ll be checking back with interest in the hope of further comment by you and your peers.

  1. Miguel Sanchez
    Miguel Sanchez says:

    You get a similar picture if you run it through any of the money/credit figures – hardly surprising if you think that velocity of money is fairly stable. So a yawning negative suggests to me one of two things:
    1. The 1991-2007 period was just one long credit binge, and we shouldn’t be extrapolating from that.
    2. Our notions of ‘sensible’ credit growth are so conservative as to be needlessly harmful, and we should be aspiring back to the days of double-digit credit growth.
    Willing to hear a third, because frankly I don’t like either of those stories.

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