Business cycles, the phases of expansion and recession in an economy, are a durable feature of macroeconomic data. Typically, quarterly real GDP data is used to determine the phase of the business cycle we are in. Unfortunately, official New Zealand data on quarterly GDP does not go back very far in time, limiting our ability […]
Author Archive for: John McDermott
About John McDermott
This author has yet to write their bio.Meanwhile lets just say that we are proud John McDermott contributed a whooping 2 entries.
Entries by John McDermott
There are many forecasts of how well, or otherwise, our economy will do over the next year. However, as a rule these forecasts are not very good at providing a candid account of the uncertainty that is present. Most forecasters simply provide a point estimate for what they expect quarterly GDP growth to be in […]