What the hell is with the headlines saying “Confidence surges post-election” and “New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 5.9 pts to 105.6, after John Key’s election as New Zealand’s new Prime Minister“. I’ll tell you why consumer confidence rose in November – retail petrol prices fell 15%. I wouldn’t have minded the random conjecture that a […]
A couple of weeks ago the November NBNZ Business Outlook survey was release – and man was it a stinker. The key point was the decline in own activity expectations – with a net 14% of firms expecting their own level of activity to contract! In conjunction with the RBNZ inflation expectations number (specifically the […]
A lot of people appear to be discussing the RBNZ’s call that the New Zealand recession is over (here, here, and here). Now I have to admit that I do not find his call ridiculous for a few reasons:
Today on Breakfast Paul Henry was stating that petrol prices are far too high, given that crude oil has fallen to $40US a barrel. His criticism was that the retail price of petrol has not fallen at the same rate as crude oil – of course this wouldn’t make much sense given that there are […]
Buy New Zealand made is gone – good. The stated aim of the campaign was to protect New Zealand jobs – but why would rejecting imports in favour of domestic production save jobs? If we import things, we have to make more exports to pay for them! Ultimately, trading with the rest of the world […]
John Maynard Keynes again 😉 The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. An apt quote given current extreme uncertainty, and the talk about stock being “cheap”. Copyright tvhe.wordpress.com ©