Mar 22 2012

New data series: Monthly comparative price levels

In my constant hunt for new data sources, I made my way to the OECD data portal – a great resource.  I wanted to check up on some PPP’s for a project I’m doing and I noticed a new series sitting around called “monthly comparative price levels”.

It allows you to compare how much you have to spend in your own currency to buy a certain amount of goods in another country – effectively for a New Zealander it shows how much you would spend in NZ$ to buy a bundle of goods in another country, where this bundle of goods cost $100NZ in New Zealand.

The series only appears to have shown up on March 8, and there is a single month – January 2012.  However, as this series builds up it is going to be very interesting.  Even the data for the single month was very very interesting.

For example, it currently takes $100NZ to buy $100NZ worth of stuff in the United Kingdom … so relative price levels in NZ and the UK are bang in line.  Not a result I expected at all.

It also shows that things are all very expensive in Aussie, and very cheap in the USA – very much in line with current thinking.

The PPP’s used in this series are consumption PPPs (rather than GDP PPPs), which means that these relative price levels are very much set up to help us compare consumption bundles (in the same way that growth in CPI is meant to allow us to understand growth in the underlying price of consumer goods).

No-one else may care, but I figured I’d note this down here so I can remember to come back to it later ;)

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/03/22/new-data-series-monthly-comparative-price-levels/

Mar 21 2012

Private prisons

The government has decided to commission a new, privately run prison. As Eric has previously discussed, there is a fairly canonical paper on the topic by some Harvard economists, which concludes that:

…a plausible theoretical case can be made against prison privatization. This case is weakened if competition for inmates can be made effective, but strengthened by the relevance of political activism by private contractors. One instance in which the case against prison privatization is stronger is maximum security prisons, where the prevention of violence by prisoners against guards and other prisoners is a crucial goal. In many cases, the principal strategy for preventing such violence is the threat of the use of force by the guards. We have shown that it is diffcult to delineate contractually the permissible circumstances for the use of such force. Moreover, hiring less educated guards and undertraining them–which private prisons have a strong incentive to do–can encourage the unwarranted use of force by the guards. As a result, our arguments suggest that maximum security prisons should not be privatized so long as limiting the use of force against prisoners is an important public objective.

Basically, the case for privatisation is that incentives to hit performance targets encourage innovation. The case against them is that there are plenty of things (like inappropriate violence) that you can’t measure, yet help to make the performance targets you can measure. So the important question isn’t ‘what are the performance measures’, but ‘what can’t you measure’? If you can’t measure important aspects of performance and you give strong incentives to meet targets then there are likely to be unintended, and potentially unsavoury, consequences. That’s not an argument against privatisation but simply a caution that high-powered performance targets should be used with great care. It is particularly salient when we are talking about a contract that affects the physical and mental welfare of so many people.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/03/21/private-prisons/

Mar 21 2012

Is Getting an Advanced Degree a Good Idea in this Economy?

This is a guest post by Kate Manning, an independent writer.  Her bio is at the end of the piece.

As a note, this post is focused exclusively on the situation in the United States – the trends in other countries (such as New Zealand) have been significantly different.

Read the rest of this entry »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/03/21/is-getting-an-advanced-degree-a-good-idea-in-this-economy/

Mar 20 2012

My suggestion for Facebook

A long time ago my university friends and myself used to use this thing called Myspace as a social network site – before it effectively became a music site.  Facebook turned up, and it destroyed Myspace – leading us to crawl over and make Facebook accounts.

My guess is this happened because Myspace pages were so clunky, busy, and confusing – you would go to write something to a friend and you would get your eyes molested by a set of animated gifs and your ears ripped open by whatever terrible music they liked.  There was also another feature Myspace had that would wind people up – top friends.

In Myspace you would choose your “top friends” for everyone to see.  People would constantly change these, knocking people off the list to upset them, or switching people around following any sort of conversation.  It is all a bit childish – but I think Facebook could introduce something similar in order to increase revenue.

Myspace friends ....

Simply put, Facebook could introduce their own top friends feature – however, have it based on the amount of interaction between people on Facebook.  By doing this, people who care about being on top friends lists will use Facebook more, increasing hours and pushing up advertising revenue.

If there is anything Myspace showed me, its that there was a group of people who took the idea of being a “top friend” seriously – lets not try to understand why.  Given these people are now on Facebook, it is undeniable that they would make a concerted effort to get up their friends top friends list – thereby triggering more ad revenue for Facebook as an organisation.  Do you think this would work – and what do you think the downsides are?

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/03/20/my-suggestion-for-facebook/

Mar 15 2012

A point on consistency: Finland v NZ

After saying I thought the general goal of catching other countries was a bit silly I suddenly clicked onto another point – the implied inconsistency of the policies being suggested by Labour.

Look, I don’t want to beat up on Labour specifically – as I think all parties are guilty of this – they just did it right here right now. Labour is saying:

  1. We want more innovative capital investment, in capital intensive technology industries
  2. We want to introduce a capital gains tax

So they want to increase capital investment … when their main policy recommendation so far is reducing the rate of return on investment.  They also suggest investing more in education – which is fascinating when we are a small open economy with an extremely mobile labour market, implying that it is very hard to keep hold of said highly trained labour.

Seriously, lets let the rest of the world bid down the price of manufactured goods and keep pushing forward technology, while we feed them and offer them awesome holiday’s – focus on what we are good at, and we will be better off than if we start trying to gamble on venture capital, or joining into the current highly competitive game of manufacturing/high tech.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/03/15/a-point-on-consistency-finland-v-nz/

Mar 15 2012

Finland and New Zealand

So there is talk of comparing New Zealand to Finland.  Fine, I still think this is as pointless as comparing us to Australia – but not to worry.

The plus of comparing us to Finland rather than Australia is that Finland is a small open economy more in our mold.  However, they are also significantly closer to market – so any thoughts that we can become like Finland have to be tempered by this fact.

Deep down I don’t believe in government oriented “transformational change”.  If anything, if the rest of the world is busily trying to compete in making information technology and manufactured goods then it is doubly good that we stick to our comparative advantage of making food – because it will become relatively more valuable (just look at our current terms of trade).

However, I have to take issue with this attack on using Finland as an area to compare us to.  Given both parties accept that we should arbitrarily compare ourselves to other countries (which I don’t) the current unemployment rate is not a fair figure to look at – instead we should keep an eye on PPP adjusted GDP per capita.  Finish people are, on average, 30% more wealthy than we are.  So the “final goal” associated with copying Finland seems to be the same goal that the current government is suggesting – magically increase incomes by 30%.

Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2012/03/15/finland-and-new-zealand/

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