Matt Nolan

Economists in agreement?

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So Don Brash spoke out against compulsory savings, as did Gareth Morgan (note that both would benefit personally from the policy, to a large degree).

John Carran’s article sums up how Infometrics feels about the policy.  And I am under the impression that every single NZ economics blogger that has touched the issue has said that compulsion is the wrong policy.

So is it me, or do we have an issue where economists in New Zealand all seem to agree?  And given this, does it make it more likely, or less likely that the policy will go ahead?

Matt Nolan

Savings working group

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I am a bit tied down at present (which should be obvious by my lack of response to comments). However, I just had to pop around to say that I approve of the team for the savings working group – bunch of great thinkers that will look at the issue objectively, and come up with some genuinely useful solutions/analysis.

Looking forward to their reports.

Update:  Nice run down, and terms of reference.

Matt Nolan

Let me get this straight

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One of the main reasons the government wants to crack down on alcohol is because of the “scenes no civilized society can relish“, which is when people of the age of 18-24 go into town and run amok – causing definite damage to other people, in some way, or something.

So they are introducing a policy that will give people the incentive to go into town, instead of drinking at home?  What policy – well they are splitting the drinking age, so you can drink at a pub at 18 but you have to be 20 to buy liquor to drink at home.

I mean seriously – they are increasing the “price” of drinking at home, so more people will just drink in town (where it is likely more student bars with low margins and high quantities will open), and with them already in town there can be even more people to “run amok”.

This is one place where I agree with Labour rather than the government (removed statement as it made it sound like I normally agree with the government – when I usually disagree with everyone, including myself often) – if there is an issue it comes from our view of alcohol, an inappropriate externality tax on alcohol, or education around alcohol.  So instead of chucking in dumb regulations with mammoth unintended consequences, lets just try to be mature (and adult) about our treatment of alcohol – and in fact all other drugs.

Matt Nolan

The Herald on compulsion

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Their case is so compelling, they don’t need to actually make it.

Also, rewriting the start for kicks I find …

So compelling is the case for slavery that it is a mystery why the Government is setting up yet another working group [ed “so compelling is the case”  WTF, did Yoda write this – actually that would be “so compelling the case is” wouldn’t it].

It needs only look at the New World, where the concept has proved so successful over recent centuries that almost two-thirds of landowners now support an increase in slavery rates.

Trekking down the same path here will address a number of pressing issues. In reality, it is not a question of whether there should be slavery but when and how it should be introduced.

Yes, the slavery comparison is excessive.  But compulsory superannuation is a forceful, ill conceived, idea.  Expect more ranting next week – I might even go into a little more detail 😉

Matt Nolan

Warning: Text book notes

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I’ve found that I don’t learn much reading – I prefer to write things in order to learn them.  I don’t know what it is, when I’m reading I just stop paying attention.  My favourite way to learn things is for someone to say it at me – but this isn’t always practical.

As a result, there will be occasional posts where I am arbitrarily writing about a chapter in a text book.  I’ll be starting with a refresher on the basic New Keynesian model, and then moving through books from there.

I will label posts that are of this nature so that you can skip them – they won’t have anything really in them but my run down of what I think is in a chapter I’ve just read.  I’m only putting them up here, so I can go back to them later – if I didn’t save my notes here I would probably lose them.

Matt Nolan

Spirit level: A more fundamental concern

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I agree with Dim Post that the choice of countries to add to the choice of countries made in the Spirit Level is a bit arbitrary (although I think Not PC and Kiwiblog also have a point regarding how sensitive the regression results are to the choice of countries that aren’t strictly the largest outliers in the sample) – but I still think that this particular “regression” is a steaming pile of unmentionables.

Lets ignore the fact that the slope of the  “regression line” appears very sensitive to the addition of a few countries.  Lets instead focus on the fact that it is a poor regression and that there isn’t a clear “theoretical background for causation”.

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