Auckland presentation this Friday

Hi all,

I will be doing a presentation for the blogging community this Friday in Auckland.  It will be at 3pm, and we will be meeting up at the MORE FM reception on Level 2, 239 Ponsonby Rd.

During the presentation I’ll cover the follow:

  • An overview of what’s going on in Europe, what we need to keep an eye out for, and how it will impact on New Zealand generally,
  • A discussion of “rebalancing” in New Zealand,
  • What’s going on with food prices and what it means for us,
  • The growing problems in the labour market,
  • A social “minimum income”.

During question time, and at the bar afterwards, I will also be available to talk about anything … as long as its economics related.

I’d love to see you guys there to discuss these issues with me.

Now that’s over

With that election thing finally out of our hair, we can focus on the fact that things aren’t looking good out there.

Krugman puts up a nice illustration of how this really is the fault of the Euro. (It would help if creditors and debtors just accepted that they need to take a bit of a bath)

And markets are now picking rates in NZ to be lower in a year’s time.  This is the extent of the positive news – again we are relying on European policy makers … I just don’t know if they deserve any trust anymore.

But, there is one thing I’ll give us here in NZ – a collapse of the Euro-zone isn’t necessarily going to be as bad for New Zealand as continuing uncertainty in financial markets.  The key is what happens to growth in Asia (given that it accounts for so much more of our trade now), and for now our dollar is pointing to a reasonable outlook for commodity prices.  But if there is anything we remember from September 2008 its that this can turn …

If New Zealand was like this all the time …

It would be completely unlivable.  Seriously, it feels like 90% of people out there support a party – and determine whether a policy is “good” or “bad” solely on the basis that it is their party doing it.  Is this election really any different to watching your local sports derby?

I mean, for the love of god partial asset sales appear to be the main theme coming into this election – one of the most incredibly marginal and unimportant issues I have ever laid eyes on.  With no impact on competition (because it is minority stakes), and with little impact on the final cost of servicing spending either way (given that the lost dividends are only slightly lower than the expected interest payments on borrowing) this is a virtual non-issue.  And yet, every single person I talk too cares STRONGLY one way or the other – for no reason that they can actually articulate.

Do people not think that “tribal politics” is inherently stupid – we should be debating what trade-offs we are willing to make as a society, and what we really feel is fair.  Not trying to make it so “our boys” are in so we have “won” …

New Zealand, I am disappoint.

Read Brian Fallow

Off you go.

In the end it comes down to supply and demand. The Reserve Bank can only influence the demand side of the economy – and that with difficulty and a considerable lag. It can’t do anything about the supply side.

But Governments can.

Rather than insisting that it take employment into account when making interest rate decisions – as though it didn’t already – it would be more helpful for politicians to focus on policies that would, for instance, create a better match between the skills employers need and those job seekers have to offer.

Very good.

Papers to read

Via Marginal Revolution

On a banking glut.  On excessive financing.  Both arguing against the “excessive savings” view of the crisis – which is currently my prior.

Will be reading these (rereading in the case of the second one) in order to avoid listening to more crap about the NZ election … seriously, I didn’t realise how much politicians lie during an election till I became an economist, and I’m still uncomfortable with it.

FYI:  I agree with the description of macroprudential policy, but I remain nervous about the “time series” policies – which are really just non-interest rate cyclical tools.  We need a significant burden of proof before these instruments can be used – although I suspect at present monetary authorities are aware of this.

Too little economics caused the crisis/inequality

There seems to be a suggestion that economic principles, and the worlds focus on them, is one main reasons why inequality has risen in a way that many are uncomfortable with.  Furthermore, it is common to hear that the economic principles taught to bankers were at fault for their being a financial crisis.

To me, this illustrates that people do not know what the “economic principles” are – and if they did it would become self-evident that it ignorance of these principles that drives poor policy by government and financial institutions.

Just look at the principals that come under this category.  It merely states that people face trade-offs, and make choices given the incentives they face.  How can these sorts of terms be at fault for causing the crisis, or leading society down a path where they were willing to accept higher inequality?

Dig even further into the most subjective elements of economics – welfare economics.  This is the stuff most economists steer away from – because they are too worried about looking like they will have a firm opinion, instead of just being descriptive (at least that is my excuse).

Look at the welfare theorems – they state that, under a given set of conditions with some initial endowments, people will trade and prices will adjust to give us so that no-one can be better off without making someone else worse off.  And on top of that, the government can transfer some of the initial endowment and voluntary trade will lead us down a road where the same condition holds (pareto optimality).

Many will then criticise economists for coming up with a model that takes on unrealistic assumption – but instead think of it this way, with this result what can we ask:

  • If we can transfer resources and allow the allocation to change, which transfer gives the outcome that society values the most?
  • Under what conditions do transfers have real effects?
  • In what cases does our result break down – and in what ways does reality represent this?

Given these questions, economists set about to try and frame issues for policy makers.  With an entire frikken set of transparent assumptions, and discussions around the potential trade-offs, they aim to provide a mixed platter for society to pick from.

And what happens instead?  People prefer to run around, pretend there are no trade-offs, lie about the impact of policy, and then when they face the costs of their actions they just blame other people.  And that is why I say that if people in society accepted scarcity, and understood the basic principles of economics, we would have better policy – and a good argument for more redistrubtion if that (for the cost of some income) was what society wished.

If the teachers have failed, it isn’t because they aren’t being critical enough of the economics establishment – it is because they haven’t been able to make children understand the basic tenant of economics, which is that scarcity exists, and that economics is the study of how to describe scarcity and the allocation of scarce resources in society.

Of course, given that this is stated in the first lecture of all economics courses, I prefer the explanation that the students that walked out of Mankiw’s course were just spoiled brats trying to do something that would make them look cool – after all, I have no doubt that was the incentive they faced.