If you’ve read this blog much you’ll know how obsessed Matt is with independent fiscal forecasts. He has variously called for an independent body to cost parties’ election proposals — Peter Dunne’s with him on that one — and independent bodies to set tax rates and maintain medium-term fiscal balance. The two have been jointly …
Category Archive: Articles
Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/11/17/fiscal-forecasting-bias/
Oct
31
2011
Oil and scarcity, what’s to be done
Rising and volatile oil prices suggest that oil scarcity is a important issue. So what can be done? Personally, I think nothing – the price represents scarcity, and unless we think there are asymmetric information issues regarding the stock of fuel then this is fine. If we do believe these issues exist, then since fuel …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/10/31/oil-and-scarcity-whats-to-be-done/
Oct
24
2011
Give me a real inflation measure
A pet hate of mine is that we use CPI to discuss inflation – without recognising the pitfalls. My solution would be to make a real inflation measure, which is something the dynamic factor model at the RBNZ is trying to do. I discuss this reasoning in more detail in an article for Idealog here.
Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/10/24/give-me-a-real-inflation-measure/
Oct
21
2011
A guide to drinking responsibly
With a three-day weekend coming up, and a Rugby World Cup final, I published an economist’s guide to drinking responsibly in the Dom last week. You can read it here. What are my tips? So what tips do I have when it comes to drinking? I have already mentioned only taking out a small amount …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/10/21/a-guide-to-drinking-responsibly/
Aug
29
2011
What’s the point of forecasts?
Matt blogs every now and then defending economic forecasters and always seems to draw out at least a couple of comments slagging off forecasters for being inaccurate. His reponse is that it’s not the numbers that matter but the qualitative analysis of risks and market direction. His defence came to mind when I was reading …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2011/08/29/whats-the-point-of-forecasts/
Sep
02
2010
Brief thoughts on NZ’s debt position
On Saturday I had an article in the Dominion Post on New Zealand’s debt levels, and why I think we need to spend a bit of time thinking about “why” this level of debt arose before yelling out for things like compulsory superannuation. My conclusion was: This issue deserves a much more in-depth analysis then …
Permanent link to this article: http://www.tvhe.co.nz/2010/09/02/brief-thoughts-on-nzs-debt-position/
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