If you are not happy with the results below please do another search
Writing in the FT he says: I think forecasting in a complex world is a poor test of expertise because luck is the overwhelming success factor. … The wonderful thing about a forecast is that both the forecaster and his audience feel that something profound has been expressed. And nobody will remember the forecast anyway. […]
The big news out of George Osborne’s Autumn Statement last week was the abandonment of his fiscal rules. But the real story for economists was in the OBR’s forecasts. There were two rules: The cyclically adjusted budget deficit must be eliminated within five years (a rolling window); and, Debt must be falling as a percentage […]
As expected, the US Federal Reserve announced QE3 early this morning NZ time. In the statement, they commit the the purchase of mortgage debt people expected (carrying on for an undefined period of time), they state they will keep the cash rate exceptionally low until at least mid-2015 (which was anticipated) – but they also […]
Apparently some historians want their discipline to become a predictive science. Because that worked out so well for economics back in the 60s. What is needed is a systematic application of the scientific method to history: verbal theories should be translated into mathematical models, precise predictions derived, and then rigorously tested on empirical material. In […]
Tyler Cowen and Kevin Grier make some predictions: Medal totals will become more diversified over time. The market share of the “top 10” countries will continue to fall (it was 81 percent in 1988) as economic and population growth slows in the rich world. The developing world has greater room for rapid economic growth, and […]
Paul Krugman explaining the IS-LM model: [T]he first thing you need to know is that there are multiple correct ways of explaining IS-LM. That’s because it’s a model of several interacting markets, and you can enter from multiple directions, any one of which is a valid starting point. Which beautifully illustrates this point: There seem […]