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134 search results for: predict

43

NZAE13 review

So last week was the New Zealand Association of Economists conference for 2013.  Rock and roll.  I am disappointed that people were not tweeting furiously about it – maybe next year. Bill from Groping to Bethlehem is the new President, while Seamus from Offsetting Behaviour is the Vice President.  This implies that the organisation is […]

44

Self analysis through exhaustive data gathering

When tech companies were torturing their interviewees with questions like ‘why are manholes round?’ there was much fawning over the way they got people to think on their feet. Now Google’s HR boss says that those questions were all a waste of time: brainteasers are a complete waste of time. How many golf balls can […]

46

Yo RBNZ

Hey RBNZ, love your work and all that.  But I have to point out something about today’s speech. I love seeing you guys discuss what is going on with the public, describing the factors, and talking about risks – this is incredibly valuable!  And given your views, I get why you are jawboning the dollar, […]

47

Prices as democratic?

Recently, a good friend of mine (who is a sneaky economist) was complaining about the policies of political parties on twitter.  In general, we were just doing our usual thing of being sad about Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem. But it also reminded me of a little view economists hold, that many non-economists may not nowadays, the […]

48

Why didn’t we see it coming?

A lot of things in economic models are ‘exogenous’ and outside our usual frame of investigation. Not just little, unimportant things but big things, too: innovation and technological change, recessions, bubbles in markets. On some reading of economic models each of these things is unknowable and unpredictable. Obviously that’s far from satisfactory and lots of […]