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I will be on Breakfast tomorrow (at 6.50am) defending Infometrics pick of a 24% increase in house prices over the next three years. Although the last pick was a little off, house prices still only feel a little bit more than we stated (falling 10% vs our 5% – although if you look at median […]
So I’ve started reading the moral philosophy and economics book I was discussing, and on the eighth page I found this quote: The idea that studying ethics could help people do economics or policy analysis may seem far-fetched. Why not consult tarot cards instead? Now I do not agree with the first part of the […]
I just watched the Jim Cramer vs Jon Stewart showdown on The Daily Show and I’m just not as impressed as some others. Stewart’s real problem with Cramer seems to be that he should have known that the meltdown was coming and told his viewers. By advising them to buy stock that he should have […]
Topic: Seeing the future: Prediction markets and the wisdom of crowds Speaker: Matt Burgess, Chief Executive, iPredict Date: Monday 23 March 2009 Venue: Level 17, Chapman Tripp, 10 Customhouse Quay, Wellington (please note that there is no access to the building after 6pm) Time: Refreshments from 5:30pm, seminar at 6pm RSVP: to: angela.bamford@bellgully.com (please note […]
Macroeconomics may have incentive problems, and there may be a lot of room for improvement or refocus, but I think saying that “contemporary macroeconomic theory has failed” is going too far. Now, I’ve shown myself to be no fan of some of the economics that has, and will, be performed – I quoted approvingly when […]
I will give people a little more time to write comments on this post on economists and predictions before I discuss it – let me say that I’m very happy with the two comments (from HH and Kimble) so far. There is a related issue that I think needs a bit of attention before we […]