On GDP and policy

Excellent article over at Aeon (we linked to earlier in the week, but it deserves its own post), I’d suggest you head over and give it a read.  To quote one passage:

Kuznets lost the argument about measuring social welfare over economic activity back in the 1930s. Now it’s time to put these two concepts in the balance again, not least because so many critics of GDP fault it for not measuring well-being. It was never meant to. Yet while we have always known this, economists have routinely used GDP growth as shorthand for well-being. And while this has a sound rationale, there are good reasons for thinking that the gap between social welfare and economic activity, as measured by GDP, is widening.

The article also mentions the usefulness, and shortcomings, of social indicators – such as the one Statistics New Zealand has put together (related discussion from Donal, Shamubeel, and me).  I think the article puts into perspective how careful we have to be with measurable goals, and why we need to be a little clearer on the limits of our knowledge and what this means for policy – both about trade-offs and how these translate into welfare.

I would recommend the entire article, there is really too much in it for me to fairly summarise anything 🙂

Update:  This piece on Partha Dasgupta at MR University is also relevant.

Demographics and the employment rate

The NY Fed has an interesting take on the impact of demographics on the employment rate. They argue that you need to make adjustments for demographic and other effects to get a clear picture of the economic cycle. On this basis, our labour market performance between 2006 and 2013 is roughly a 1/3 better (or 1/3 less bad)! Read more

The Fed vs the BoE

Yesterday the Fed pirouetted neatly, simultaneously beginning to taper its quantitative easing and suggesting that policy will not tighten until well beyond its guidance threshold for unemployment. The sum impact has been a loosening of policy but what interested me is the sequencing of its actions.
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Big employment data revisions ahead?

The Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) data has been volatile recently. It is survey based and is usually benchmarked to Census data. Sampling is also affected by Census results. The latest Census data suggest some big revisions ahead for many of the published HLFS indicators, including employment.

EmploymentGrowth Read more

LVR restrictions: exempting new construction

The RBNZ today exempted new home builds from high loan to value restrictions.

The reason for putting the policy in place is financial stability. That is to reduce the accumulation of high-risk debt in the banking system. By this test, and this should be the reasonable test, this is bad policy.

By this exemption the RBNZ is saying that it is less risky to borrow to build a new house than to buy an existing house. I disagree that new house prices move less than existing house prices. So, the RBNZ is now exercising a policy of exclusion – against those high LVR borrowers who want to buy existing homes.

The justification that we need to build more houses, surely is retorted with, is this the right policy to address that problem? It also raises the question of why was this not a consideration before the LVR policy was implemented? What did the RBNZ actually know about how high LVR loans were being used, by whom and where?

By increasing highly leveraged credit flow to new builds will not solve issues to slow land release and planning restrictions.

By seemingly bending to industry and political pressure, the RBNZ has tarnished its shield of independence. I am fearful of ongoing lobbying and political interference it invites heading into the 2014 election.

Regional unemployment

The 2013 Census data is a treasure trove. A striking regional picture is the unemployment rate by territorial authority.

Urate by TA Read more