France’s novel approach to the wage bargain: ‘boss-napping’

In the face of increasingly uncertain economic times, the latest trend in France is for workers unhappy with their company’s position on labour to boss-nap,. Boss-napping entails workers disappointed with redundancies or payouts taking their bosses hostage as a bargaining tool! Recent kidnappings have involved 3M France’s industrial director and Sony France’s CEO and HR director.

Unfortunately it seems that the tactic is working, with 3M France’s industrial director being released after signing a deal which offered more favourable treatment for the 110 employees who faced losing their jobs. I’m not sure of the validity of such a contract made under duress over there – I doubt it would stand up here – but hey, they do things differently in France.

December 2008 GDP

0.9% fall in December (production account, seasonally adjusted). However, September was revised down as well – so similarish to a 1% fall. Bigger decline than the RBNZ expected, but about in line with the market.

Expenditure account (old C+I+G+X-M) fell by 0.6% – but has fallen a lot further over the past year.

GDP deflator did rise a lot more strongly than I expected.

December 08 quarter GDP out today

So, GDP is out today.  The market expects a 1% fall, ANZ has gone as far as 1.2% (I’m talking about a quarterly seasonally adjusted fall – none of this annualised rubbish).

Now, I’m not so sure.  Yesterday’s current account deficit came in on the money, but the deficit as a % of GDP was lower than expectations.  There are three possibilities:

  1. The GDP deflator is going to be mighty strong (even with inflation pressures tumbling and the TOT falling),
  2. December activity is above expectations,
  3. Previous activity has been revised up (at least within the last year).

Now, it is dodgy trying to get a feeling out the the BOP figures for what GDP is – but with current estimates I could only get a small GDP fall to justify a 8.9% current account deficit.  Combined with the hours worked revision today’s decline might be relatively small.

Deficits, RBNZ, and the IMF

The IMF, in all its infinite glory and knowledge, has decided to give New Zealand some advice on fiscal and monetary policy.  Here is my take on their sermon from the heavens.

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Kneejerk reactions aren’t always the best

The American public/politicians swelled with outrage at the reports of AIG paying bonuses recently. Puffed up with anger, Congress decided to implement ad hoc measures to eliminate the bonuses. Was it a good idea? Well, in retrospect it seems ill-informed and badly judged, as Megan McArdle details:

[T]he people who actually lost the money have, from most accounts, either been sacked, or left on their own. The people who got the bonuses were not involved with the dangerous trades, other than to help wind them down. …

Also, apparently, these payments were neither retention bonuses in the conventional sense, nor performance bonuses. They were guaranteed payments used to persuade employees from other parts of the Financial Products division to stay and wind down the FP’s books.

Ooops! But I think there’s a greater harm here than the injustice done to those employees, who’ve been robbed of their compensation for a year’s work. Read more

Are nations just large labour unions?

We generally allow capital and goods to flow freely between nations nowadays – which is a good thing. However, that leaves us in the situation where the whole purpose of a nation appears to be working for the benefit of labour in that country.

Now it may well seem like the best thing to do – if we didn’t do it we would undoubtedly have lower incomes. However, this would be because the people in abject poverty overseas now have more options and will be able to manage a higher living standard.

Often people blame globalisation for the abject poverty we see overseas. But it isn’t globalisation that is the problem – it is the lack of globalisation. Closed labour markets, which are effectively massive labour unions, are a large part of the reason why poor countries can’t pull themselves out of poverty.

Now we may value the welfare of local citizens more than we do foreign people – some people have said so here. But even in the case where loosening migration would lead to worse outcomes for locals (which is not always the case), we would have to discount “non-local” people quite substantially not to let them in. Remember that the human cost isn’t all on one side – when we close off migration we are implicitly falling the lives of people overseas as well.

How is this like a labour union? Well labour unions do all they can to increase workers wages, often at the cost of the unemployed (who are the competition of the employed). Unions thrive by hurting the unemployed through artificial barriers – and they inherently value employed people more than unemployed people. Change unemployed to “non-local” and employed to “local” and we have the same thing for nation states.