GST and food. Why I’m against exempting the tax

Via Dim Post, No Right Turn mentions an article from Werewolf.co.nz by Gordon Campbell.  The article supports the idea of exempting GST on food. There were a number of interesting facts, I definitely enjoyed the articles.

However, even if all the premises are correct and even given significant social justice goals, I think we have to be clear regarding why we think an exemption is the way to go – and in the end I still disagree regarding any exemption.

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Fat is normal, but it still involves choice.

I was impressed by the title of a NZ Herald article today “Fat is normal“.  I was like, yes it is perfectly rational for an individual to put on weight, contrary to what we are often told.  I began to think that if policy wonks would treat the idea of putting on weight sensibly we could avoid weird “anti-fat” policies.

However, then inside the article I saw it was written by a nutritionist – the worst of the prescriptive disciplines in my opinion.  Furthermore, they decided to take an entirely holistic approach to weight gain, removing any individual responsibility and blame the environment.  Namely:

Professor James said that in countries such as Britain and New Zealand, the reason for many people’s obesity was a genetic predisposition in an environment which allowed it to happen with an “out-of-control” food industry and the constant use of cars

What is this.

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And a side note on addiction

With alcohol regulation we decided to remember that it is the external cost that matters.  Now one reason private costs might matter in terms of regulation is internalities.  There is a discussion of this with regards to boozing here.

This brings me to the idea of “addiction” I discovered from this article.  What is addiction, and why are we so scared of it.  Looking at a search of TVHE, I can tell that the authors here are not scared of addiction, we view it a little differently to the black and white box often given by (say) health professionals (ht Dim Post).

For me, all addiction tells us is that the consumption of the good CHANGES the costs and/or benefits of the consumption of the good in the future.  As a result, what is important is:

  1. Information with regards to how addiction functions (and the costs and benefits of consumption) for people,
  2. Having mechanisms available so people can “pre-commit” to consumption patterns in the face of an addictive good.

When we have these two pieces of the puzzle we can figure out what tax and what institutional policies can be established to improve outcomes with regard to the consumption of this specific good.

There is NOTHING wrong with addiction per see.  If we banned things on the basis of addiction we would ban pretty much everything.

Personally I think of addiction as follows:  A good is addictive if consuming it increases the marginal benefit of consuming it in the future and/or it increases the marginal cost of NOT consuming it in the future.  The first type of addiction is unambiguously good, the second type is not – but it is internalised as long as people know about it, and people are able to deal with issues of time inconsistency.

With alcohol regulation remember

Remember the simple fact that, as long as we believe people are responsible, have better information on themselves, and are better able to make choices regarding themselves then arbitrary regulation (or some lesser combination of these points), then we shouldn’t focus on the entire “social cost (private + external costs)” associated with alcohol when regulating.

The focus should only be on the external cost – the cost placed on other individuals from the choice of one individual.  The private costs are already being taken account of when the choice is made.

As a result, if the calls of a 50% increase in excise tax are not based just on true external costs, but also broader private costs, they are asking for “too much tax” in a strict “efficiency” sense.  They may be doing this as they genuinely dislike alcohol (although the risk of unintended consequences spring to mind here – namely people drinking more alcohol beverages if the cost per alcohol unit is lower, and also people brewing their own), or because they think people are inherently stupid.  However, neither of these reasons seems like a good justification for policy.

For more discussion on this sort of stuff, see Offsetting Behaviour on the policy applications for an earlier BERL report, the search of “alcohol” on his site, our post on policy relevance, and the search of “alcohol” on our site 😉

UpdateOffsetting behaviour (Eric in more detail here), Kiwiblog, and Not PC discuss.

I love this quote from Kiwiblog, “He even went out to Courtenay Place with a Police escort, and said he saw scenes that “no civilized society can relish”.” – if I was behind these scenes Geoff, I’m sorry 😉

Update 2: A facebook group based on Geoff’s quote.

Unashamed advertising …

In the interest of providing more timely information regarding economic information, or at least our view, the firm I work for (Infometrics) has made a Twitter page and a Facebook page.

The purpose of the Twitter page is to put down our first thoughts on data, and links to articles.  The purpose of the Facebook page is to put down links to articles, and provide a medium where people can ask us questions – which we can in turn respond about.  As a result, if you join the Facebook page I suggest going to discussion and starting a new one – it will be like here, except with other economists from Infometrics, and with less ranting from me 😉

Given that one of our authors is from NZIER (and also because they seem like geniunely nice blokes/blokettes) I feel bound to state that they also have a Facebook page and a Twitter account which I follow.

Other economic analysis Facebook pages of note are CIS (Australasian) and Reform (UK)

Finally, and most importantly, don’t forget that TVHE has a Twitter account – where we post links to our sporadic blog posts.  There is no blog Facebook page as that would be intensely pointless given our lack of any fans 😉 .  However, I would gladly join an NZ economics society style page if it is out there somewhere *wink* *wink*

Maths and economics … again

Not PC has a critique of the use of mathmatics in economics.  Critising the discipline of economics has been especially popular lately.  I have had engineers (and some physicists) call me up to tell me that we do economics wrong and we need more maths (to which my reply would be to look more closely at the methodology of your own discipline before even trying to apply it to our one).  I have had business people (and my dear mother) call me up and say that there is too much “voodoo maths” and economists need to work in real jobs first.

What I have found in common with all these criticisms is that their implicit view of what an economist does, and the point of economics, differs remarkably from my own.  The scope, methods, and reasoning behind economic analysis which we are imbued with at university most definitely differ from the scope, methods, and reasoning which I often hear people accuse economists of using/making.

Now I don’t agree with either side except my own here, as I think the current implementation of maths in the study of economics makes sense.  In fact, I don’t believe the level of maths is a fixed thing – it merely depends on what “language” people who use economics are willing to use.  This is because maths is merely a language.  Using mathematical form, economists are able to place down ideas and clarify thinking, as long as economists understand the implicit assumptions they make when writing out a mathematical model then this is a valuable way of doing things.

Rather than reiterating my defense of economics, I will link to things.  Here is where I last discuss math and economics, here I mention “Marshal’s view” of maths, which is close to the way economists still function.  Here is a set of links where I build up an idea of “what is economics“.  And before anyone says that predictive failure indicates that maths is an issue, I say that the purpose of economic language and discussion is trying to build a case for description and explanation.  There are a myriad of links saying this (*, *, *,*).

So the typical conclusion from this is that maths is useful in economics as it provides a powerful tool/language that allows us to set issues down – in the hope of being able to describe/explain relationships in reality.

Not PC adds another element though.  Specifically he counters by calling on the lack of causal inference available from pure mathmatics – however, when this is the case we have to rely on explicit judgments and theory.  In this situation we can DEBATE causality when we set up the mathmatical model – but it does not make the use of such models invalid.

That is why I always say – use the theory as much as possible before you get onto using the data.  Now I have no doubt that the data may then impact on the way you view the theory, there is a significant circularity problem here, but that is part of the reason why economists are so determined to formalise and set down in mathmatical stone the theoretical roots of their analysis.  And this is, of course, the main area where economics is trying to improve itself and evolve at the moment – hence why I don’t think there is an issue with training and research in the discipline per see.