Is economics a science? Yawn!

Matt has written a long post discussing Rosenberg and Curtain’s NYT article about the science of economics. Their basic point is that economics has a poor forecasting record so it’s not a science and we should just treat it as a useful art. Matt’s response engages directly with the philosophy of science but I think an interesting perspective is raised by Paul Krugman in his reply. He first points out that economists’ models have actually performed very well throughout the crisis and Bernanke is far from an artist:

…far from acting as a free-spirited improviser, Bernanke has been largely implementing recipes developed in the academic literature years before.

These are easy points to score against the philosophers, who appear completely clueless about economics. Worse, they spend all their time attacking the strawman of logical positivism, which has never really described the way economists or other scientists actually work. But I’m going to leave that argument to Matt because I think, in one key respect, Paul Krugman goes too far. Read more

Not so lazy lecturers

For all those who’ve accused university lecturers of having it easy with only a few teaching hours a week:

This study analyzes self-reported faculty workload in a Canadian research intensive university. …Results show an average weekly workload of 56.97 hours of which 44.1% is allocated to teaching, 35.2% to research, 5.8% to administrative tasks and 14.8% to service.

HT: Economic Logician

Network effects

They sound fancy and complex but this is a good explanation from XKCD. What I really like about it is that it emphasises how competition among networks is not unambiguously beneficial to consumers. For more on network effects and why they’re not the same as externalities check out the Palgrave description.
The first-world problem of competing networks

LVR data for March 2013

The RBNZ announced LVR (loan to value) restrictions will start on 1 October 2013. It will limit high LVR (over 80%) to 10% of new lending. Matt has already written about this.

This post adds some data for context. The following figures are from the March 2013 quarter General Disclosure Statements, published on each bank’s website. 

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New TVHE author: Introducing Shamubeel Eaqub

I see that Offsetting Behaviour has already beaten me to it, but in case you haven’t seen it I’d like to warmly introduce Shamubeel Eaqub as a new TVHE contributor.  He is joining Agnitio, Goonix, James, and Myself as “potentially regular writers” – which implies having the ability to just write something on here whenever we get the itch.

Most of our readers will already know Shamubeel – he is a Principal Economist at NZIER, and has expended a lot of effort discussing and communicating economic ideas in public in recent years. I have no doubt he’ll introduce his own style, and set of interests, into the pool of TVHE posts – and we’ll all be much better off for it.

The fact he works at NZIER of course makes him an ex-workmate of James and a bitter competitor to me – but even so I’m pretty excited about his contributions to the discussion here!

He has already posted on National’s housing policy and discussing creative destruction with reference to Blackberry phones – although not in this way.

I like to think that Shamubeel was keen to join us after his strong performance in the “sexiest economistcompetition, coming in fourth place.  Perhaps by entering the econoblogsphere he’ll be able to egg up enough support to break into the top three next time?

 

Sped up change: Blackberry, Crackberry, gone?

Blackberry, the phonemaker that popularized smartphones, may put itself up for sale. It has gone from a superstar to a has-been in less than a decade. Its share price has fallen from a peak of US$140 in 2008 to around $10 now. It was severely disrupted by Apple and other smartphone makers. I am one of those who migrated from obsessing over my Blackberry at the dinner table to obsessing over my iPhone at the dinner table – I don’t miss it one bit.

This had me wondering what it means to live in a fast changing world, where loyalties are fickle and preferences turn on a dime. I had a bit of time at the airport in Taranaki. This blog is asking those questions out loud and does not have fully formed answers. I want your views.

Blackberry share price (from Yahoo!Finance)

Blackberry’s fall from grace is Joseph Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” in action.

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